Iran and the United States have commenced crucial discussions with the help of Omani mediation in an attempt to address significant disagreements concerning Tehran’s nuclear program. However, a disagreement regarding broadening the agenda poses a risk to the diplomatic process and the potential of sparking a new conflict in the Middle East.
According to an Iranian official, while the talks have not officially started, Iran’s demands have been communicated to the US through Oman. The official mentioned that indirect negotiations could potentially commence following a meeting between the top US negotiator and Oman’s foreign minister. Previous talks between Iran and the US have utilized a shuttle diplomacy approach.
Although both sides have shown willingness to reengage in diplomatic talks regarding Tehran’s ongoing nuclear dispute with the West, the United States aims to expand the discussions to include Iran’s ballistic missiles, support for armed groups in the region, and their internal treatment of citizens, as stated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
An Iranian diplomatic source informed Reuters that the involvement of CENTCOM (US Central Command) or any regional military officials in the talks could disrupt the progress of the indirect nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States in Oman.
Iran has expressed its desire for Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to focus solely on the nuclear issue during the discussions in Muscat, Oman. Additionally, Jared Kushner, son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, who previously assisted in mediating Gaza ceasefire talks, is expected to participate in the negotiations.
The leadership in Tehran remains apprehensive that Trump may act on his threats to strike Iran following the US Navy’s military buildup near the country. In a recent incident, the US engaged in targeting Iranian nuclear facilities during the final phase of a 12-day Israeli bombing campaign.
The escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran have been exacerbated by the US naval buildup, referred to by Trump as a significant “armada,” which followed a violent crackdown on nationwide protests in Iran last month.
Amidst the negotiations, Trump has cautioned that failure to reach a deal could lead to adverse consequences, intensifying pressure on Iran and resulting in mutual threats of airstrikes.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized the various options available to the President beyond diplomacy due to his role as the commander-in-chief of a potent military force.
Global powers and regional states are concerned that a breakdown in the negotiations could lead to a conflict between the US and Iran, potentially spilling over into the oil-rich region.
Iran has warned of a robust response to any military strike and has put neighboring Gulf Arab countries hosting US bases on notice that they could be at risk if involved in an attack, given Iran’s significant stockpile of ballistic missiles.
The discussions in Oman must navigate Iran’s firm stance on discussing its missile program to achieve a resolution and prevent future military actions. Iran has categorically rejected talks regarding its defense capabilities, including missiles and their range.
Despite its strong position on the missile program, Iran has shown willingness to exhibit flexibility on uranium enrichment, including proposals to relinquish highly enriched uranium and consider zero enrichment under certain agreements.
Iran insists on its right to enrich uranium, demands the lifting of sanctions imposed since 2018 following the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, and maintains that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.
The United States, along with its European allies and Israel, accuses Iran of using its nuclear program to mask attempts to develop weapons capability, while Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are peaceful.
Israel has drawn parallels between the threat posed by Iran’s missiles and its nuclear program, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu highlighting concerns over Iran’s pursuit of atomic weapons and the significant number of ballistic missiles in its possession.
Iran’s regional influence has significantly waned due to the weakening of its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” following events such as the Hamas-Israel conflict in Gaza in 2023 and the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
