Efforts to resolve the conflict in the Middle East hit a roadblock yesterday, as the US deliberated over Tehran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran asserted its independence from US influence.
Iran has been obstructing the strait, a crucial passageway for oil and gas transport, since the onset of the US-Israeli offensive two months ago, causing significant disruptions to the global economy.
The standoff led to a surge in oil prices, surpassing $110 per barrel.
Reports from CNN suggested that US President Donald Trump was hesitant to accept Iran’s offer to resume traffic in the strait. Meanwhile, Qatar cautioned against a potential “frozen conflict” if a definitive solution was not reached soon.
While a ceasefire has halted the fighting, efforts to reach a lasting resolution have been inconclusive.
Qatari foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari emphasized the importance of achieving a sustainable end to the conflict and avoiding a return to hostilities in the region.
Following Iran’s transmission of written messages to Washington through Pakistan outlining its red lines, including nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, Trump met with top security advisors to discuss the proposal. The White House confirmed that the proposal was under discussion.
The proposed plan entails Iran easing its grip on the strait in exchange for the US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports, while broader negotiations continue, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
However, Trump indicated during the meeting that he was reluctant to remove the Strait of Hormuz from the table without addressing the nuclear concerns, though his next steps remained uncertain.
In a social media post, Trump claimed that Iran was in a state of collapse and seeking US assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz while resolving its leadership issues.
Iran’s defense ministry spokesman countered, stating that the US must abandon its unreasonable demands and recognizing Iran’s sovereignty.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged Iran’s proposal, expressing cautious optimism but questioning its sincerity and emphasizing the need for a deal that definitively prevents Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons.
Iran’s UN envoy highlighted the necessity of guarantees from the US and Israel to prevent future attacks in exchange for security assurances in the Gulf region.
Amid dwindling prospects for a deal, oil prices surged, with Brent crude and WTI prices rising significantly.
US intelligence agencies are reportedly assessing potential responses from Iran in the event of Trump unilaterally declaring victory in the conflict. This analysis aims to understand the implications of a rapid de-escalation on both political and security fronts.
While no decisions have been made, a swift de-escalation could alleviate political pressure on Trump, although it might empower Iran to potentially revive its nuclear and missile programs, posing a threat to US allies in the region.
Public sentiment in the US reflects strong disapproval of the military campaign, with polls indicating widespread dissatisfaction and a decline in Trump’s approval ratings.
White House discussions have explored various military options, including airstrikes on Iran’s military and political leaders, although more drastic measures like a ground invasion appear less probable than before.
