In Dhaka’s policy circles, there is a concerning trend of overlooking conflicts in distant regions as issues that do not directly affect Bangladesh. The ongoing conflict involving Iran serves as a significant challenge that requires Bangladesh’s attention and action.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, plays a crucial role in global trade. Around 20 to 30 percent of the world’s fertiliser exports and a substantial portion of global energy supplies pass through this chokepoint. Any disruption in this region can have far-reaching effects beyond the Gulf, impacting supply chains, shipping routes, and remittance flows to countries like Bangladesh.
Bangladesh heavily relies on nitrogen-based fertilisers, mainly sourced from natural gas and transported through Gulf supply lines. The recent disruptions in global fertiliser markets due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have already affected Bangladeshi farmers, leading to higher input costs, reduced crop yields, and financial strain on rural communities. A potential disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz could exacerbate these challenges, resulting in a crisis during the upcoming planting season.
Moreover, escalating oil prices not only impact fuel costs but also raise expenses for irrigation systems, cold storage operations, and transportation of agricultural products. This inflationary pressure throughout Bangladesh’s food supply chain ultimately burdens ordinary households, while the government faces additional strain on its subsidy budget amid financial constraints.
A critical vulnerability lies in the three million Bangladeshis working in Gulf countries, whose remittances support millions of families and contribute significantly to the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Prolonged instability in the region jeopardizes the safety of these workers and the economic stability of their dependent communities. Past experiences have shown that during economic downturns in the Gulf, Bangladeshi workers face wage cuts, job losses, and forced repatriation.
To address these risks, Bangladesh’s foreign policy must promptly evaluate its dependence on fertiliser imports, explore alternative sourcing options, diversify energy imports, and engage diplomatically to safeguard its overseas workers’ interests.
Building on past diplomatic efforts, it is crucial for Bangladesh to take proactive measures to protect its national interests. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, with his familial legacy and diplomatic goodwill in the Gulf region, holds the potential to strengthen ties and secure vital supply chains. Bangladesh should engage strategically with affected partners to demonstrate solidarity, protect its workers, and ensure continuity in the supply chain.
This proactive approach does not entail taking sides in external conflicts but emphasizes the need for coordinated statecraft to shield citizens from global disruptions. Collaboration among key ministries like foreign affairs, commerce, and the Bangladesh Bank is essential in navigating these challenges successfully.
The Iranian conflict underscores the interconnected nature of global affairs and the importance of prioritizing food security, energy stability, and the welfare of overseas workers in national policymaking. Bangladesh’s resilience in the face of past shocks must be matched by decisive actions from policymakers to mitigate the current threats to its agriculture, economy, and migrant communities.
The consequences of inaction are too severe for Bangladesh to ignore.
