The aftermath of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East has made its impact felt in China, leading to increases in petrol and plastic prices, while Chinese diplomats advocate for peace.
China’s relationship with Iran and the broader Middle East is under scrutiny due to the economic ties between the two nations. Despite being sometimes grouped as anti-Western alongside Russia and North Korea, the relationship between China and Iran is primarily transactional, with China primarily interested in Iran as a source of discounted oil.
Although China heavily relies on Iranian oil purchases to boost its revenue, it is not solely dependent on Tehran for its oil imports. Despite a 2021 agreement for substantial Chinese investment in Iran over 25 years, the actualization of this investment has been minimal. Chinese trade with Iran was valued at $9.96 billion last year, significantly lower than its trade with other Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq.
In terms of military support, China has maintained a cautious approach, refraining from direct involvement in the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. While China has condemned certain actions by Iran, such as attacks on the Gulf, it has avoided overt military engagement and instead emphasized restraint and diplomacy.
China’s diplomatic efforts in the region focus on promoting stability and continuity, aiming to safeguard energy flows, protect commercial ties, and position itself for future influence post-war. However, Beijing’s influence in the conflict is limited, as it navigates a delicate diplomatic balance between not directly condemning Iran while criticizing violations of sovereignty against Gulf countries.
The ongoing conflict poses both opportunities and risks for Beijing. While the war presents diplomatic advantages by allowing the US to potentially damage its own global reputation, the high oil prices and economic devastation in the region pose risks to China’s own development, particularly concerning its export markets.
Ultimately, China views Iran as a strategic partner and a counterbalance to the United States but is cautious about the implications of a nuclear-armed Iran and further instability in the region. Beijing aims for a stable regime in Tehran but remains adaptable to political shifts, as it has demonstrated in other geopolitical scenarios.
