Thailand’s economy and tourism sector are expected to experience a decline this year due to the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on global energy prices, according to a statement from the finance ministry on Tuesday.
The ministry forecasts that the country’s GDP growth will decrease to 1.6 percent, down from 2.4 percent in 2025. Economic growth in Thailand is sluggish, with the tourism industry being crucial, although visitor numbers have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.
In February, the government had projected a growth range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent for this year. The ministry now anticipates approximately 33.5 million foreign tourists visiting Thailand in 2026, a decrease of about two million from previous estimates.
The decline in tourist arrivals is attributed to reduced numbers from Europe and the Middle East following the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to higher fuel prices. In March, visitors from the Middle East decreased by a third compared to the same period last year, while European arrivals saw a four percent drop. Conversely, arrivals from other Asian countries increased by six percent, based on data from the Thai tourism ministry.
Thailand welcomed nearly 33 million foreign visitors in total last year. The country’s core inflation rate is projected to reach three percent this year, a significant increase from the earlier estimate of 0.3 percent.
