A recent study in The Lancet Global Health medical journal reveals that over 75,000 Palestinians lost their lives during the initial 15 months of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, surpassing the previously reported 49,000 deaths from local health officials. The study, which underwent peer review and was released on Wednesday, highlighted that a significant portion of the casualties were women, children, and elderly individuals, making up about 56.2% of the violent deaths in Gaza during that timeframe, aligning with data from Gaza’s health ministry.
The research, spearheaded by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, led by prominent pollster Khalil Shikaki, and headed by Michael Spagat, a professor at Royal Holloway, University of London, marked the first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip. The study involved surveying 2,000 Palestinian households over a week starting on December 30, 2024.
According to the authors, as of January 5, 2025, an estimated 3-4% of Gaza’s population had succumbed to violent deaths, with additional non-violent fatalities linked indirectly to the conflict. Discrepancies in the Gaza death toll have been a point of contention since the commencement of Israel’s offensive in October 2023. While Gaza health authorities report over 72,000 fatalities and suspect more casualties remain unaccounted for beneath rubble even 28 months later, Israel has raised doubts about these figures due to Hamas’s influence over the ministry.
The Lancet researchers refuted claims of inflated numbers and implied that the ministry’s figures may actually be conservative under the extreme circumstances. Their previous statistical analysis in The Lancet indicated that deaths were potentially undercounted by around 40% during the initial nine months of the conflict, a trend that seems consistent with the latest findings.
Field staff, primarily women with extensive surveying experience, conducted in-person interviews with individuals from various households across Gaza’s different regions. The questionnaire, as reviewed by Reuters, prompted respondents to provide details of deceased individuals within their immediate family.
