The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised downward its cotton import forecast for Bangladesh in the ongoing marketing year (MY) 2025-26 due to decreased use in mills.
Bangladesh is now expected to import 77 lakh bales this MY, which is 2.5 percent lower than the USDA’s March forecast of 79 lakh bales. This marks the third downward adjustment since January when the projection was 80 lakh bales.
Md Mohiuddin Rubel, a former director of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, noted that the USDA revised Bangladesh’s cotton import forecast on April 6, attributing it to factors such as energy shortages, weakened garment export orders, increased yarn imports, and financial challenges that have significantly impacted spinning activities.
The decline in Bangladesh’s readymade garment exports by 5.5 percent year-on-year from July to March of the MY has also affected the sector. Knitwear, the primary user of cotton yarn, experienced a 6.4 percent decrease.
The industry continues to face challenges from macroeconomic pressures, energy crises, and subdued global apparel demand. International buyers have been negotiating lower unit prices, squeezing profit margins for garment manufacturers.
Insufficient gas supply in key industrial zones, often dropping below 2 PSI, has led many mills to operate below capacity and import cotton only for confirmed orders. Additionally, concerns about losing trade preferences post-graduation from least developed country status have added to the cautious approach.
The USDA’s two recent reports on cotton highlighted a projected use of 78 lakh bales in mills, down 2.5 percent from their March estimate. Global cotton consumption is expected to increase by nearly 600,000 bales to 11.91 crore bales, driven by rising demand in China and India.
For MY26, world cotton trade is forecasted to grow by 3 percent from the previous year, primarily due to significant increases in cotton imports by India and China. Lower imports for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam have been offset by higher imports for China and India, as stated in the USDA’s monthly report.
In its latest analysis on cotton and wool released on April 13, the USDA indicated that global cotton imports in 2025-26 are dominated by Vietnam and Bangladesh, collectively accounting for 35 percent of the total. China is expected to increase its cotton imports by over 15 percent to 60 lakh bales, supporting its textile and apparel exports. India’s cotton imports are forecasted to grow by 38 percent to 42 lakh bales in MY26 due to consecutive below-average crops, leading to higher import requirements.
