A forthcoming “super” El Niño event, potentially the strongest ever documented, is anticipated in the near future, according to meteorologists. Historical data from 1877, when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific surged by an estimated 2.7 degrees Celsius, is being referenced. The repercussions of the 1877-78 super El Niño were catastrophic, devastating crops in countries such as India, China, Brazil, Australia, and parts of Africa. This led to a global drought and famine that persisted for at least two years, claiming the lives of approximately five crore individuals, equivalent to three to four percent of the global population at that time.
In the current era, how would a super El Niño event impact the world, and are we facing a similar or potentially worse scenario? The positive aspect is that we are not in the late 1870s, a period marked by colonial powers disrupting indigenous food systems. Today, we possess a crucial advantage that was lacking in the past: early warnings.
Following the 1982-83 El Niño event, a global effort was initiated to revolutionize ocean monitoring. Presently, a network exceeding 4,000 instruments spread across the Pacific Ocean continuously monitors air pressure, wind patterns, and water salinity, providing real-time detailed insights into oceanic conditions.
However, the downside is that the current global climate is warmer compared to the 1980s. Dr. Deepti Singh, an associate professor at Washington State University’s School of the Environment, who has researched the 1877 super El Niño, emphasized that the current atmospheric and oceanic temperatures are significantly higher than those of the 1870s, potentially leading to more severe extremes.
For Bangladesh, an intense El Niño event signifies reduced monsoon rainfall, which in turn affects the Aman rice harvest, resulting in elevated food prices. With inflation already surging in a country of over 17 crore people, the specter of hunger looms closer.
While we cannot halt the warming of the Pacific Ocean, proactive measures can prevent this escalation from transforming into a crisis for the Padma, Meghna, and Jamuna river systems. Stakeholders including the government, NGOs, aid organizations, and local communities can implement practical strategies to brace for the impact of El Niño. This includes recognizing the severity of the situation, enhancing early warning systems, conducting detailed surveys of water levels, preparing food security buffers, promoting agricultural resilience, and engaging in international collaborations to secure food and energy resources.
In conclusion, the potential devastation caused by a super El Niño event similar to that of 1877 is unlikely to recur due to improved monitoring and forecasting capabilities. However, preparedness is essential to mitigate the impact of such natural disasters. The effectiveness of our early warning systems, food reserves, water management strategies, and national disaster response readiness will be put to the test. Adequate preparedness is the key to navigating the impending crisis successfully.
